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Traders Brace for CPI
Posted
October 23, 2025
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October 23, 2025
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4:21Now PlayingCameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth discusses how equities are still stuck in the tariff scare range.
A surge in oil prices rekindled concern about any impacts on inflation that could hinder the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates more aggressively, driving bond yields higher. Stocks rose amid solid earnings.
In the run-up to a reading on consumer prices - the first major report since the start of the government shutdown - crude jumped 5% as the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil companies in a bid to end the war in Ukraine. As a result, Treasuries snapped a three-day advance. The S&P 500 rebounded, with energy shares leading the charge.
The surge in oil comes at a time when some policymakers have shown caution about the outlook for inflation even though they have signaled a bigger focus on the other side of the Fed’s dual mandate: jobs. As money markets brace for a Fed reduction next week, traders are likely to look past any evidence of stubborn inflation in Friday’s consumer price index report.
With employment remaining the biggest fear, “we don’t think the CPI number tomorrow will carry much weight as the Fed meeting starts next Tuesday,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “As for oil, we see some shortages on the horizon, although the number of ships carrying oil in the world is very large and Russians have been very good bypassing sanctions in the past.”
On the trade front, China said Vice Premier He Lifeng plans to meet with US officials from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of negotiations. He and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are setting the stage for expected talks later this month between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Treasury 10-year yields climbed five basis points to 4%. The S&P 500 hovered near 6,725. All megacaps but Tesla Inc. gained. The electric-vehicle giant lost 1.5% as profit plunged despite a record quarter of sales. Intel Corp. will report results later Thursday.
Gold advanced, paring some of the week’s steep declines. The dollar wavered. Bitcoin gained.
US inflation on Friday, which will offer the first real glimpse on the state of the economy following a long delay due to a US government shutdown, is forecast to have risen 0.4% in September on a monthly basis, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The core figure, which strips out more volatile components, is expected to increase 0.3%.
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