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Don't Bet Against the US Consumer, Says Oliver Chen
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November 28, 2025
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6:24Now PlayingOliver Chen, Senior Equity Research Analyst at TD Cowen, shares his outlook for retailers amid Black Friday shopping.
Underwhelmed and unimpressed are how shoppers are feeling about Black Friday deals so far.
The Repasky family makes a tradition of coming out to Tysons Corner Center shopping mall in Virginia on Black Friday. One change they noticed this year: fewer doorbuster deals and freebies.
Jennifer Schmuck reported the same from Westfield Montgomery Mall in Maryland Friday morning. “I don’t think the deals were as good,” the 50-year-old banker said. Last year Macy’s Inc. gave her a $10 coupon for being among the first in line, but didn’t this year.
Near Philadelphia, Melissa Ritzius, a 50-year-old homemaker, was similarly unimpressed with the sales at the Polo Ralph Lauren Factory Store. Even though the deals looked comparable to last year, with higher listed price they didn’t amount to much of a discount.
One Polo sweater she was eyeing went from $125 last year to $170 this year. “It’s a big change,” she said. Ritzius didn’t end up buying it.
Many shoppers said they came out for the experience of big crowds, yet that too was disappointing for some. Some malls and shopping centers across the US today, like Patrick Henry Mall in Virginia, were empty this morning. Others had lines at a few stores, like Macy’s, Old Navy, Target and Edikted.
“It feels like less than a normal Saturday,” said Nicole Slaughter from the Mall of Georgia in the Atlanta area.
Deontay Phillips, a 26-year-old who serves in the military, who came out for his first Black Friday was underwhelmed by the lack of deals and festivities. “It’s not really what I expected,” said Phillips from a Best Buy Co. store in Newport News, Virginia. “I probably won’t do this again.”
US consumers are heading into the official start of the holiday shopping season Friday with a host of economic concerns, including a cooling job market, stagnant wages, persistent inflation and the looming fallout from tariffs. Black Friday will be a litmus test: Will American shoppers push through growing economic headwinds or will the consumer-powered US economy start to fizzle?
Signs point to a less indulgent holiday season.
“We are not expecting it to be an overzealous, exciting holiday,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail adviser at research firm Circana.
While overall spending is estimated to be on par with last year, according to Circana, unit sales could fall as much as 2.5%. In other words: People will spend more to buy less stuff.
“The tree is not going to be jammed this year,” Cohen said.
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