US Payrolls Rise After October Drop, Unemployment Marches Higher
December 16, 2025
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4:29Now PlayingUS Payrolls Rise After October Drop, Unemployment Marches Higher
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as posted by the channelJeffrey Cleveland, Director & Chief Economist at Payden & Rygel, reacts to the November jobs report.
US job growth remained sluggish in November and the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high, pointing to a continued cooling in the labor market after a weak October.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 64,000 in November after declining 105,000 in October, adding to the choppiness seen in the labor market in recent months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday, continuing its upward climb as many out-of-work Americans struggled to land new jobs.
The decline in October payrolls, which was the largest since the end of 2020, was due to a 162,000 plunge in federal government employment as workers who accepted the Trump administration’s deferred resignation offers officially dropped off payrolls.
While the data come with caveats, the report will help inform investors’ expectations for the path of interest rates next year. The Federal Reserve lowered rates for a third straight meeting last week to support what Chair Jerome Powell called a “gradually cooling” labor market with “significant” risks of a further slowdown.
However, Fed officials are split over whether more cuts are needed next year. The median Fed official penciled in just one reduction in 2026, according to rate projections released alongside the decision, but some policymakers see no further cuts. Traders, meanwhile, have been counting on two.
“The labor market remains weak, but the pace of deterioration probably is too slow to spur the FOMC to ease again in January,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
The S&P 500 fell, along with the two-year Treasury yield. The dollar remained lower.
A separate report out Tuesday showed retail sales were little changed in October as a decline at auto dealers and weaker gasoline receipts offset stronger spending in other categories. And figures from S&P Global showed US business activity expanded in December at the slowest pace in six months, while a measure of input prices jumped to a more than three-year high.
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