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Expect 3 to 4 Rate Cuts from the Fed Next Year, Says Win Thin
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December 19, 2025
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6:24Now PlayingWin Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau, discusses his global economic outlook for 2026.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said there’s no urgency to cut interest rates again given recent employment and inflation data, reinforcing expectations for a pause after a string of recent reductions.
“I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now, because I think the cuts we’ve made have positioned us really well,” Williams said Friday during an appearance on CNBC. “I want to see inflation come down to 2% without doing undue harm to the labor market. It’s a balancing act.”
The New York Fed chief’s comments add to signs the Fed may hold rates steady in the coming months after cutting them at each of their last three gatherings, amid divisions over the economic outlook. Following their meeting last week, officials released projections showing they only anticipated one quarter-point reduction in 2026, according to the median estimate.
Treasury yields edged higher following Williams’s remarks. Investors currently see rate cuts at each of the Fed’s next three policy meetings in January, March and April as unlikely and are putting roughly even odds on a reduction in June, according to futures.
Williams said this week’s employment and inflation reports were distorted by data collection issues during the recent government shutdown. Still, he said the figures suggest underlying inflation continues to make progress toward the Fed’s 2% goal and that the labor market is gradually cooling.
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