Maduro Ouster Does Not Guarantee Democracy in Venezuela, Says Shannon O'Neil

Shannon O'Neil, Senior Vice President at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses why Maduro’s capture does not guarantee democracy in Venezuela.

As the US threatened Nicolás Maduro’s grip on power in recent months, a cadre of executives, lawyers and investors tied to the oil industry made their case to anyone who would listen — the Trump administration, congressional aides: His familiar No. 2 Delcy Rodríguez should fill his shoes in Venezuela.

An oil minister herself, Rodríguez has long been the go-to contact for senior executives, whom she impressed by navigating Venezuela’s industry through international sanctions, economic pressures and internal mismanagement. Her loyalty to the Maduro regime notwithstanding, she’d be best positioned to shepherd through the US plan to restore Venezuela to its glory days as an oil gusher, argued executives and lobbyists.

President Donald Trump’s inner circle came to the same conclusion, though people familiar with the matter say they did so independently. Both groups believed that the vice president, long seen as a bridge between the government and private sector, could stabilize Venezuela’s oil-based economy and facilitate American business faster than leading dissident María Corina Machado could, said the people.

Administration officials were mindful of the chaos that ensued in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Business interests aside, maintaining a semblance of business continuity will be critical to a successful transition — one that the Trump administration has yet to define. And Rodríguez fits both those bills: she oversees Venezuela’s oil apparatus and has decades of relationships among the remaining socialist stronghold in government.

The advocates for Rodríguez didn’t directly include the biggest US oil majors, who were surprised by the removal of Maduro and are still racing to figure out how to work with Washington on next steps, according to people familiar with the matter. But there’s a wider universe of US and international companies that have operated in Venezuela for years, and many have contacts in the White House and on Capitol Hill, the people said.

A spokesperson for Chevron Corp., the only major US oil company licensed to operate in Venezuela, said it “had no advance notice of the recent operation and did not engage in any discussions with administration officials regarding governance for a post-Maduro Venezuela.” It also said operations in the country were continuing uninterrupted and in full compliance with laws and regulations.

In a triumphal press conference Saturday, Trump endorsed Rodríguez to lead Venezuela for now. Machado, he said, lacked “respect” to lead the country, a stunning blow to the recent Nobel Peace Prize winner and the regime opponents at home and abroad who have pinned their hopes on her.

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