Oil Holds Gain as Iran Protests Offer Fresh Crude Supply Risk
January 12, 2026
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4:49Now PlayingOil Holds Gain as Iran Protests Offer Fresh Crude Supply Risk
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as posted by the channelLeslie Palti-Guzman, Founder at Energy Vista & Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, discusses the outlook for the energy market as conflict in Iran and uncertainty in Venezuela continue to spark concerns.
Oil was steady near a one-month high as unrest in Iran raises the specter of supply disruptions from OPEC’s fourth-biggest producer, while security forces say they’re in full control of the country.
Brent traded near $63 a barrel after jumping almost 6% over Thursday and Friday. President Donald Trump said the US is closely monitoring the protests in Iran and is mulling “strong options” as the Islamic Republic faces a third week of turmoil. He also touted a meeting with Tehran.
Iran’s foreign minister repeated government claims that rioters and terrorists killed police and civilians, while footage was broadcast on state TV saying calm had been restored nationwide.
The possibility of a disruption to Iran’s daily exports of almost 2 million barrels has tempered concerns over a global glut that caused a slump in prices and made investors increasingly bearish. The scale of risk has shown up clearest in options markets, where the skew toward bullish calls is the biggest for US crude futures since June and volatility is surging.
The unrest is the most significant challenge to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since a nationwide uprising in 2022. It follows a surge in oil prices during a 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June, which quickly eased after the US intervened and brokered a peace deal.
“We see several paths for oil becoming caught in the crosshairs of the latest Iranian unrest,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft wrote, adding that the most obvious would be if oil workers were to join the protests and go on strike. “There is also a risk that the IRGC might target regional energy supplies to raise the cost of American intervention.”
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