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US Core CPI Rises 0.2%, Bucking Estimates for Bigger Rebound
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January 13, 2026
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2:47Now PlayingTroy Ludtka, Senior US Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, reacts to the December US CPI print.
Underlying US inflation rose in December by less than expected, a more confident signal of cooling price growth after shutdown-related distortions complicated the previous report.
The core consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from November, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.6%, matching a four-year low.
The reading is perhaps a more convincing sign that inflation is on a downward path, since a number of caveats in November’s report contributed to a significant pullback in the annual core CPI.
Economists said that data was artificially depressed by the record-long government shutdown because the BLS couldn’t collect prices in October and assumed no increases in key housing metrics. November data were also collected later than usual and could have been affected by holiday discounts.
There was some bounce-back in shelter costs, which were the “largest factor” in the overall monthly advance, BLS said, while apparel prices also climbed. Recreation costs rose by the most ever and airfares jumped. Grocery prices were up the most since August 2022.
Several categories showed price declines, including appliances and used cars and trucks. Vehicle repair costs fell by the most on record. Core goods prices, which exclude food and energy, stagnated last month — also defying expectations for a rebound.
While the shutdown impacts on the data haven’t fully unwound, “the key positive in this report is flat core goods prices, reinforcing the view that tariff pass‑through to consumers has been much milder than anticipated,” Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, said in a note.
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