CEOs Navigate Waterfall of Trump Policy Shifts

Wall Street and corporate America are facing a delicate dance at the start of 2026: How do you help clients and shareholders reckon and prepare themselves for Trump’s policy onslaught without drawing his ire? Increasingly, the answer is self-censorship. As leaders contend with an onslaught of policy announcements and changes, coupled with major geopolitical shifts, the decision of what to say and when to say it is as important as decision-making itself. Alan Guarino, Vice Chairman of Korn Ferry, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. Guarino also promotes his new book, “Greatness Code: The Formula Behind Unstoppable Success." He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.

As the US earnings season gathers momentum, early results are offering a window into the economic and political crosscurrents shaping Corporate America’s outlook for the year ahead.

Airlines were among the first to flag risks. Delta Air Lines Inc. struck a cautious tone on profits amid geopolitical uncertainty, while United Airlines Holdings Inc. warned that global tensions could weigh on travel demand. Meanwhile, executives at consumer staples giants Procter & Gamble Co. and McCormick & Co. said shoppers remain cautious.

3M Co. fell the most since April after its outlook missed estimates, with the maker of Post-it notes, roofing granules and electronics materials saying the macro environment remained uncertain for its consumer and auto businesses. Signs of strain are lingering in industrial sectors as reports from distributor Fastenal Co. and logistics company JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. disappointed investors.

The downbeat commentary stands in contrast to many of the headline economic indicators. Data from last year pointed to solid growth and resilient consumer spending. Among S&P 500 Index members that have reported so far, 80% have topped analysts’ expectations as of the close on Thursday, according data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Policy uncertainty “absolutely” overshadows positive news from companies, said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “It does make it much harder for management to plan... but what CEO is going to say, ‘the policy instability coming out of the White House is making it very difficult for me to manage my business?’”

Companies are reporting results amid a rare convergence of political disruption and global uncertainty. Stocks are trading at high valuations after the S&P 500 clocked in three straight years of double-digit growth, leaving little room for error.

Corporate executives now face the tough task of laying out the companies’ outlook for the year ahead as President Donald Trump continues to reshape the country’s trade relations and international policy.

“The environment across our key markets is marked by volatility and continued pressure from inflation, geopolitical and trade uncertainty” and the risk of rising unemployment, McCormick Chief Executive Officer Brendan Foley said on a conference call on Thursday. “Overall consumer confidence remains low.”

Shares of the spice and seasoning maker slid the most in two years after both fourth-quarter earnings and its outlook for the year fell short of expectations.

Procter & Gamble, the maker of Pampers diapers and Tide detergent, noted similar disruptions, though it expects sales will increase in the next six months. Both P&G and McCormick said sales were hurt by the government shutdown, which temporarily halted food-aid programs and weighed on lower-income consumers.

In industrials, companies pointed to lingering demand headwinds. Fastenal’s chief financial officer said the US economy “continued to send mixed signals, especially in the industrial sector.” At JB Hunt Transport Services, executives said the freight market remains shaky at the start of the year — even as immigration policy constrains labor supply, a dynamic that would typically support higher shipping rates.

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