McDonald’s Sales Beat Estimates as Value Strategy Pays Off

McDonald’s US sales grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the fourth quarter as value meals continued to resonate with cost-conscious diners. Sales from established US restaurants jumped 6.8% in the period from a year ago when foot traffic was dented by an E. coli outbreak, ahead of expectations and the highest since 2023. Earnings, excluding one-time items, also outpaced the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg, as did comparable sales at the company’s two international divisions. The shares declined less than 1% at 4:48 p.m. in extended trading in New York, erasing an earlier gain. The stock has advanced nearly 6% this year through Wednesday’s close, outpacing the gain of the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Abby Roach, Senior Portfolio Analyst for the Empiric LT Equity Team with Allspring Global Investments, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. She speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. McDonald’s priority in recent quarters has been to regain its status as an affordable dining-out option after prices surged coming out of the pandemic. Fourth-quarter results suggest those efforts, which have included more affordable menu items and value meals priced as low as $5, are gaining ground and allowing the burger chain to outperform competitors.

“McDonald’s is not going to get beat on value and affordability,” Chief Executive Officer Chris Kempczinski said during the company’s conference call. He added that McDonald’s gained market share with low-income consumers in December.

Mark Kalinowski, CEO of Kalinowski Equity Research, wrote in a research note that the US growth “shows that to some significant degree, McDonald’s is doing a better job of offering value in what remains a challenging environment.”

McDonald’s shares rose about 2% at the open of trading. The stock had advanced nearly 6% this year through Wednesday’s close, outpacing the gain of the S&P 500 Index.

Grinch, Monopoly

US diner traffic improved in the fourth quarter and customers also spent more per visit, the company said. Executives cited the popular Monopoly game and a Grinch-themed meal that launched during the period. The Grinch meal in particular performed well, fueling what the company said was its best sales day ever.

Chief Financial Officer Ian Borden said momentum from the value meals continued into January, but comparable sales in the first quarter will likely slow from the previous period. That’s due to the popularity of the marketing promotions in the previous quarter as well as severe weather that kept diners away and caused some restaurants to cut hours of operation.

“Relying on special promotions remains a volatile strategy,” Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull wrote in a note following the results.

While US comparable sales exceeded analyst estimates, the result was likely close to investors’ expectations, RBC Capital markets analyst Logan Reich wrote in a research note.

The burger chain reported a pretax charge of $80 million, or 9 cents a share, related to restructuring charges as McDonald’s looks “to modernize ways of working” under its latest strategic plan. Operating margin, a measure of profitability, declined from the previous quarter.

New Beverages

McDonald’s is planning to introduce new beverages this year, according to Jill McDonald, the company’s global chief restaurant experience officer. The burger chain has been expected to update its beverage offerings following its pilot of a small beverage concept called CosMc’s.

The new offerings will be under the McCafé brand, McDonald said. The company plans to offer a range of drinks including “indulgent coffees,” refreshers, energy beverages and crafted sodas, she said.

Stifel’s O’Cull said that while the new beverage lineup is important for brand relevance and to increase visits outside of meal times, the launch isn’t expected to “provide a structural comp spike.” Rather, the rollout of a new, larger burger called the “Big Arch” could help increase check size and restaurant margins.

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