Trump Iran Deadline Sets Up Possible Strike When IAEA Meets

Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Geoeconomics Lead for Bloomberg Economics, examines the US military buildup in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump’s warning to Iran — that it has just 10 to 15 days to avert potential military action — suggests matters could come to a head when the United Nations nuclear watchdog next meets to decide whether to further censure the Islamic Republic.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s board is scheduled to hold a five-day meeting in Vienna starting on March 2, or 10 days from now. Diplomats are expected to weigh a new resolution censuring Iran for its nuclear program and could refer it to the UN Security Council for further action.

While both the US and Iran have said they are working toward a diplomatic solution, that sets up a potential repeat of the timetable that played out in June, when Israel began strikes within 24 hours of the IAEA board’s decision to censure Iran over its lack of cooperation with monitors. That finding was cited by US officials, who at the time suggested it provided the legal justification for military intervention.

“It potentially gives the administration the hook it needs to attack Iran in an attempt to affect regime change,” said Tariq Rauf, the former head of nuclear-verification policy at the IAEA.

As the US amasses forces in the Middle East for a potential attack against Iran, Trump told reporters Thursday that “we’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.” The US military is stationing a vast array of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and refueling tankers, with President Donald Trump saying that Iran had 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program.

“We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” Trump told reporters Thursday aboard Air Force One. On a deadline, Trump said he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue.

“I would think that would be enough time,” he said.

WATCH: President Donald Trump said on Thursday Iran has 10 to 15 days at most to agree to a deal over its nuclear program. Joumanna Bercetche reports.

The deployment is unlike anything the US has done since 2003, when it amassed forces before the invasion of Iraq. It dwarfs the military buildup that Trump ordered off the coast of Venezuela in the weeks before he ousted President Nicolas Maduro.

While the US isn’t likely to deploy ground troops, the buildup suggests Trump is giving himself discretion to launch a sustained campaign lasting many days, in cooperation with Israel. While discussions have focused on a sustained campaign far more sweeping than the overnight strikes the US launched against Iran’s nuclear program last June, the president is also weighing a limited early strike designed to drive Tehran to the negotiating table, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

“Maybe we’re going to make a deal,” Trump said in a speech on Thursday morning. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.” Heightened geopolitical worries over US-Iran tensions sent stocks lower and extended a surge in oil, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, rising above $71 a barrel on Thursday.

The open question is whether Iran can possibly satisfy Trump’s demands and whether, by positioning so much military hardware to the region, Trump may feel compelled to use it rather than backing down.

Tracking site FlightRadar24’s data shows a surge of flight activity by US military transport, aerial tankers, surveillance aircraft and drones to bases in Qatar, Jordan, Crete and Spain.

The aircraft, whose transponders make them visible over land to the tracking site, include KC-46 and KC-135 air-to-air refuelers and C-130J cargo planes used to move troops and heavy equipment.

It also includes E-3 Sentry jets equipped with airborne warning and control system radar, which provide “all-altitude and all-weather surveillance” of potential battle zones, as well as RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drones.

The weapons at Trump’s disposal are formidable.

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