Iran War is Regime Change 'Lite,' Says Ed Price

Ed Price, non-resident senior fellow at NYU, says that a new regime in Iran would be more fearful of the US, than the current rulers.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected the idea of an “endless” war with Iran as airstrikes continued for a third day, with the conflict reverberating across the Middle East and upending energy markets.

The assault on the Islamic Republic that began Saturday — a joint operation with regional ally Israel — was the start of a “clear devastating decisive mission,” Hegseth told reporters on Monday. The US has already established “local air superiority,” Dan Caine, US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at the briefing at the Pentagon.

President Donald Trump — who campaigned against involving American soldiers in protracted wars overseas — told CNN the operation is “a little ahead of schedule,” having thought it would last four weeks. “I think it’s going very well,” he said, adding that a “big wave” has yet to come. President Donald Trump has long said the US is done with nation-building. Now, he’s embraced a form of intervention that hearkens back to an earlier American era: openly targeting adversaries’ leaders for death or arrest while offering few details about how the US intends to manage the aftermath.

Just a few weeks ago, US forces seized Venezuela’s president in a surprise raid from the air. By ordering strikes on Iran that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this weekend, Trump has gone even further. Scores have already been killed, including four US troops so far. Hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones have hit countries across the region, while American and Israeli forces continue their attacks. The escalation and its unpredictable consequences are already driving oil prices higher and testing investor tolerance for geopolitical risk.  The message is unmistakable: almost no foreign adversary should feel secure, except perhaps those that have nuclear weapons. Rivals will have to contend with a more unrestrained form of American power — one that critics say shatters the legal restraints Washington has long demanded of others.

“Trump seems to have become worryingly ready to use the formidable US military power and to do so without any constraint — guided only by what he sees as US interests at any particular moment,” former UK National Security Adviser Peter Ricketts told Bloomberg. “This might-is-right approach sets a terrible precedent, where any country can feel free to attack the leader of any other — exactly what the UN Charter was intended to prevent.” As Iranian missiles struck targets across the Gulf, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas — slowed sharply, with shipping lines suspending transits, insurers reassessing risk and some shipowners invoking war clauses to cancel voyages. Airlines grounded flights across the region, including global hubs like Dubai, with operations remaining restricted Monday.

Read More: GLOBAL INSIGHT: Iran War – Three Scenarios for Oil and Economy

Brent crude, already up nearly 20% this year, was trading around $77 a barrel after surging the most in four years Sunday. Bloomberg Economics estimates a full closure of the Strait could push oil as high as $108 a barrel. Saudi Arabia shut its biggest oil refinery after a drone attack. Natural gas prices in Europe jumped more than 50% after Qatar, a key supplier, shut production at the world’s largest LNG export facility. Gold and the dollar also rose, and US Treasuries weakened amid fears of rising inflation.

“When you look at past presidents, we’ve never used our full power,” said Jack Devine, former director of operations at the CIA. “We were at the more collegial 7 level. Trump has amped it up to the 10 level. This is a brave new world.”

While Trump has urged protesters who flooded Iran's streets in December and January to seize power, there is no sign that the administration has laid the groundwork for an opposition movement to quickly rise up against the regime.

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