MongoDB Tumbles as Weak Forecast Revives Concerns

MongoDB shares fell over 20% in Tuesday's session after the database software company gave weaker-than-expected forecasts for full-year revenue and first-quarter adjusted earnings. Its fiscal 2027 sales-growth outlook was below consensus, reviving analyst and investor concern about expansion amid an intensifying product race, and signaling rising competition and slower expansion of customer wallets. The company's recent quarters showed better execution, but 2027's revenue guidance implies year-over-year deceleration. MongoDB President and CEO CJ Desai joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. MongoDB shares fall as much as 27% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the database software company gave weaker-than-expected forecasts for full-year revenue and first-quarter adjusted earnings.

Among other software movers, Datadog -4.2%, Snowflake -3.7%, Cloudflare -2.7%

ANALYST COMMENTARY

Baird analyst William Power (cut to neutral from outperform, PT $260)

While the company reported solid 4Q results, “Atlas revenue growth of 29% was a weaker-than-expected beat”

“Fear the combination of Atlas growth questions, limited AI revenue contribution, and several GTM management changes could create overhangs”

Bloomberg Intelligence

“MongoDB’s fiscal 2027 sales-growth outlook was below consensus, reviving concern about expansion amid an intensifying product race and signaling rising competitive intensity and slower expansion of customer wallets”

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Citi (buy, PT $435)

“After several strong quarters, MongoDB delivered a more mixed Q4,” and “while we’d argue results were still operationally solid, they likely fell short of elevated investor expectations”

Leadership changes, “paired with a smaller upside beat and lack of positive revisions, are likely to reignite investor questions around execution and competitive intensity”

Vital Knowledge

The results show solid upside relative to consensus expectations, but “the revenue guidance mid-point falls a bit short”

FIRST QUARTER FORECAST

Sees adjusted EPS $1.15 to $1.19, estimate $1.21 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees revenue $659 million to $664 million, estimate $662.7 million

2027 YEAR FORECAST

Sees adjusted EPS $5.75 to $5.93, estimate $5.72

Sees revenue $2.86 billion to $2.9 billion, estimate $2.9 billion

FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS

Adjusted EPS $1.65 vs. $1.28 y/y, estimate $1.48

Revenue $695.1 million, +27% y/y, estimate $670 million

Subscription revenue $673.1 million, estimate $648.4 million

Service revenue $22.0 million, estimate $19.6 million

Cash and cash equivalents $1.08 billion vs. $490.1 million y/y, estimate $915.8 million

EPS 18c vs. 19c y/y

COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT

“Effective March 3rd, 2026, Erica Volini joins MongoDB as Chief Customer Officer to accelerate the company’s next phase of growth”

“MongoDB is also announcing that Cedric Pech, President of Field Operations, and Paul Capombassis, Chief Revenue Officer CRO, are leaving MongoDB. This transition has been planned for some time, and the management team believes now is the right moment for this change.”

“We delivered strong fourth quarter results driven by our continued go-to-market execution and the broad-based demand we are seeing across our product lines, as customers deploy additional elements of the MongoDB platform.”

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