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Stocks Pare Oil-Fueled Rout on Trump’s Assurances
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March 4, 2026
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6:23Now PlayingA selloff in stocks and bonds was trimmed as assurances on American action to secure shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war pared what had been an over 9% surge in oil. Following an earlier slide in the S&P 500 that reached 2.5%, the equity benchmark dropped less than 1%. President Donald Trump said the US will escort and insure tankers and other vessels through the world’s most-critical energy chokepoint. Oil prices waned in post-settlement trading, with Brent trading near $80 a barrel. Don Calcagni, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer Advisors, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. Calcagni also speaks about investment strategy amid a volatile backdrop. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec from the Bloomberg Invest conference in New York City. Oil fluctuated after Iran denied a report that it indirectly reached out to the US in a bid to end the war in the Middle East, as the conflict menaces vital global energy flows.
West Texas Intermediate steadied near $75 a barrel after surging in the previous two sessions. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim state media on Wednesday denied a New York Times reported that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reached out to the CIA through another country’s spy agency with an offer to discuss terms for ending the conflict. That had earlier pushed prices into negative territory.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia said there was an attempt to attack its Ras Tanura refinery. The kingdom also confirmed it’s diverting supplies away from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea to try to keep operations running. An Indian refiner told customers it was suspending fuel exports as global prices soar.
The oil market has been pitched into turmoil by the US-Israeli war against Iran, with strikes and counter-strikes spreading across Persian Gulf nations, forcing major producers to shut output and all-but stopping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil transits.
Trade disruptions beyond oil are raising the specter of a global energy crisis and sparking inflationary fears.
The “market won’t calm down unless it sees proof of traffic resuming toward normalcy,” said Vandana Hari, founder of analysis firm Vanda Insights.
A quick resumption of flows through Hormuz, is crucial for Gulf nations to be able to sustain production as storage fills up. The war is also causing a slew of output disruptions as Iran’s neighbors, including Iraq, the second-biggest OPEC producer, come under attack.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the US International Development Finance Corporation would offer insurance to vessels to help ensure the flow of energy and other trade, providing a naval escort “if necessary.” But the shipping industry sees it — at best — as only a partial solution to a historic crisis and few details about the plan have emerged. Major oil storage sites in Saudi Arabia are rapidly filling up, according to Kayrros. Four of the six tanks at the Ras Tanura refinery were full and the Ju’aymah terminal on the country’s east coast is quickly running out of spare capacity, they said.
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“We assume that Brent will trade in the $80s in March as the market processes mixed signals with some relief from a potential gradual recovery in Strait of Hormuz flows but also some renewed concerns as evidence of production cuts grows,” Goldman Sachs analysts including Daan Struyven wrote.
The bank lifted its forecasts for the second quarter by $10 a barrel to $76.
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