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US Has 'No Economic Case' for Cutting Rates, Says Brean Capital's John Ryding
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March 5, 2026
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6:19Now PlayingJohn Ryding, Chief Economic Advisor at Brean Capital, examines the relationship between geopolitical shock and economic resilience.
Treasuries fell for a fourth day — lifting yields to the highest levels in several weeks — on concern that rising crude oil prices will stoke inflation.
Yields across maturities were higher by two to five basis points as the US benchmark crude oil futures contract topped $78 a barrel for the first time since June. It’s climbed from under $70 this week after the US attacked Iran on Feb. 28, leading traders to wager on a later start to any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
US government bond yields remained elevated after the US government’s weekly tally of new jobless claims was slightly lower than economists estimated. While Friday’s release of February employment data is expected to show deceleration in job growth, the sign of labor-market strength is another challenge to wagers on Fed interest-rate cuts that benefit bonds.
“The market is not going to trade on economic data today,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien. “It remains about the widening war in the Middle East and the energy markets.”
Yields on two-year notes, more closely tied than longer tenors to Fed rate changes, rose nearly five basis points toward 3.60%, the highest since Jan. 28. They’re about 20 basis points higher on the week, the biggest increase since April. The 10-year yield was around 4.14%, the highest since Feb. 12.
Speaking Thursday, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said inflation risk stemming from fuel prices had policy implications, and that the trend in consumer prices “certainly puts pause to any conclusion that we’re done fighting this.”
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