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FIA Global Cleared Markets Panel Talks Prediction Market, Oil
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March 10, 2026
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59:41Now PlayingBloomberg's Tim Stenovec speaks with Deutsche Boerse Group Executive Member Thomas Book, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, Nasdaq Chair and CEO Adena Friedman, SGX Group CEO Boon Chye Loh and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour from the FIA Global Cleared Markets Conference in Boca Raton, Florida. Oil climbed in another volatile trading session as traders weighed whether an emergency release of crude reserves by wealthy nations would blunt the impact of escalating disruptions to Middle East supplies.
The International Energy Agency on Wednesday announced an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels, surpassing even the drawdown following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The UK is set to contribute 13.5 million barrels. Oil futures fell briefly on the IEA’s move before recovering.
The release highlights the tenous state of the oil market after the war in the Middle East effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow channel that typically handles a fifth of global crude flows — and led major Persian Gulf producers to cut output. Three vessels were hit with suspected projectiles in the region on Wednesday, as the conflict shows no signs of abating.
Oil prices have whipsawed lately over mixed messaging from the White House regarding the status of the war on Iran. US President Donald Trump said in an Axios interview that the conflict will end “soon” because there is “practically nothing left to target.” Still, Israeli and US officials told the news outlet that they are preparing for at least two more weeks of strikes.
“The market is refocusing on the disrupted volume due to the Strait closure, and realizing the transit is still unsafe,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.
Brent was trading higher near $91 a barrel, after earlier switching between gains and losses. The fluctuations continued a period of extreme market volatility this week that saw prices reach almost $120 on Monday. West Texas Intermediate rose to trade near $86. Oil tumbled on Tuesday as the market grappled with rapidly shifting comments from the Trump administration about the war and shipping via Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright erroneously posted — and then deleted — a message that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the strait near Iran, only for the White House to concede no operation had occurred.
There was also a flurry of conflicting social-media messages from Trump about mines in the strait. Trump is facing mounting economic and political pressure over the war, and late Monday said the conflict would be ending soon. However, US officials on Tuesday signaled military operations were escalating and there was little chance of diplomatic talks. “It very much feels like a market trading in the fog of war, reacting in real time as events unfold,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “Traders continue to get whipsawed by intense price action and extreme volatility in crude, with headlines driving sharp intraday swings.”
The conflict in the Middle East, now into its second week, has drawn more than a dozen countries into the fray and has sparked concerns about an inflation crisis. US retail gasoline has jumped, putting additional pressure on Trump.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have lowered their collective output by as much as 6.7 million barrels a day, or 6% of global output, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. The biggest oil refinery in the UAE halted operations following a drone strike.
In the US, however, domestic inventories are rising. A government report Wednesday showed that US crude stockpiles rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, diverging from a closely followed industry report that had indicated a draw. Gasoline demand rose sharply, with the four-week average posting its largest increase since October 2024, in an indication that drivers are fueling up before prices climb even further.
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