March 18, 2026
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9:49Now PlayingAlicia Levine, BNY Wealth Head of Investment Strategy, discusses the market reaction to a surge in oil after a strike on an Iranian gas field.
A surprisingly hot inflation report from before the war in Iran drove stocks and bonds lower, with an oil surge amid strikes on Persian Gulf facilities fueling worries about energy disruptions and further price pressures.
Signs that the conflict in the Middle East is escalating spurred a flight away from the riskier corners of the market. The S&P 500 halted a two-day advance. Brent approached $110. In the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision, Treasury yields rose as the producer price index unexpectedly accelerated, with traders reducing bets on even a single interest-rate cut in 2026.
“The markets continue to be on edge as each headline out of the Middle East causes knee-jerk reactions,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “Crude is driving the bus and the longer it stays above $90 - or spikes higher - the ‘buy-the-dip crowd’ grows quieter and the ‘sell-the-rally narrative’ gets more dominant.”
Markets were roiled anew as Iran warned countries around the Persian Gulf that a number of energy assets are now “legitimate targets” after Israel attacked its giant South Pars gas field, sending further shockwaves through energy markets.
Oil prices have soared almost 50% since the US and Israel began the war on Feb. 28, triggering a response from Iran that’s seen missiles and drones fired at countries across the Middle East. Regional energy giants have been forced to cut production in response, particularly due to the effective shuttering of the critical Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump temporarily waived a century-old shipping mandate to lower the cost of transporting oil, gas and other commodities, marking his latest bid to combat the rise in energy prices spurred by the war.
The spike in oil prices risks adding to inflationary pressures while restraining the economy. Fed officials, who are widely expected to keep rates unchanged, now turn their attention to the supply shock.
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