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The US is Not Insulated From This Shock, Says Richard Clarida
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March 25, 2026
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10:49Now PlayingRichard Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO and former Fed Vice Chair, joins for an extended discussion on geopolitical risk and the Fed's path ahead.
The cost of imports into the US jumped in February by the most in nearly four years, reflecting a broad pickup in prices even before war in the Middle East.
Import prices increased 1.3% from the prior month, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday, boosted in part by higher prices for petroleum and natural gas.
Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by a record monthly increase in capital goods costs as well as a pickup in prices of consumer merchandise excluding automobiles.
Export prices also surged, rising 1.5% in February, the most since May 2022.
The acceleration in import prices underscores a growing risk of a resurgence in inflation as companies face higher energy costs tied the Iran war. US importers are also contending with higher duties set in place by the Trump administration. Tariffs are not included in the government’s import price data.
“Given inflation momentum and the Mideast conflict’s anticipated impacts, price pressures will turn higher before they turn lower,” Oren Klachkin, a financial markets economist at Nationwide, said in a note. “We look for the conflict to exert upward pressure on energy and food prices, and for its impact to seep into core prices.”
Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers.
Meanwhile, the decline in the value of the US dollar since early last year risks eventually making the cost of foreign-made goods more expensive for domestic importers. A cheaper dollar, if sustained, could also underpin demand for US-made goods.
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