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Gold Lower on Mixed Signals Over Potential Iran Ceasefire
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March 26, 2026
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10:40Now PlayingGold fell after US President Donald Trump sent mixed signals on whether the US and Iran could reach a deal to halt the nearly month-long war, further roiling global markets. Bullion fell as much as 3.4% Thursday, but trimmed some losses after Trump said he is extending the pause of strikes on Iran’s energy sites. “Talks are ongoing,” Trump posted on Truth Social, “and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well.” Earlier Thursday, gold came close to a bear market — defined as a 20% drop from its recent peak — as the US president gave conflicting messages on a potential ceasefire. Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer at Merk Investments, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. He speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. US stocks headed for their longest streak of weekly losses since 2022 as traders grew more nervous about a protracted war in the Middle East, while China upped the ante in its trade dispute with the US. Bonds fell globally.
S&P 500 futures dropped 0.4%, with the benchmark on course for a fifth weekly decline. Brent advanced 3.2% to more than $111 a barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed five basis points to 4.46%. The dollar and gold edged higher.
Friday’s moves came after President Donald Trump pushed back his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US as the two sides remain far apart after nearly a month of strikes. As the fighting showed no signs of easing, Israel said it would escalate and expand its attacks on the Islamic Republic.
The conflict has inflicted damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf and effectively shut a vital artery for oil and gas shipments. Traders fear a broadening impact on energy supplies and oil prices, raising the risk of an inflationary spiral that may force central banks to tighten monetary policy.
Also weighing on sentiment was China’s move to open a trade probe into the US ahead of an expected summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping.
“After several glimmers of hope, fueled by comments from President Trump, which were quickly dashed, the market is becoming more demanding in terms of rhetoric,” said Amélie Derambure, senior multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi. “The TACO trade is more difficult to do because a return to square one is not possible from here.” European stocks fell 1.1%, with the Stoxx 600 on track for its worst month since the onset of the pandemic. Yields on UK, German and French government debt rose across the curve. Asian stocks extended March’s losses to more than 10%.
Sentiment remained fragile as Iran and Israel exchanged missile fire and Tehran targeted several Gulf states on Friday morning. The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East.
“Trump is unpredictable, so one doesn’t know whether he’s gaining time to send troops to invade the Strait of Hormuz or to negotiate further,” said Nicolas Domont, a fund manager at Optigestion in Paris. “The war could stop anytime and things could return to normal within a few months but one could also end up with oil at $200 in six months.” Meanwhile, China’s investigations into US trade practices signaled the country’s retaliation against similar probes by the Trump administration. The move is a direct mirror of steps Trump took to revive his tariff agenda after the Supreme Court last month struck down some of his duties.
“China has learnt that a confrontational approach on trade produces the most favorable outcome in negotiations,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “The reciprocal action China has launched should be seen as a move to stake out its territory ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.”
Heading into the weekend, traders across equity, fixed-income and commodity markets are less likely to hold big bets. Trump has made some of his biggest gambits in the war over weekends, raising the risk of volatility when markets reopen the following week.
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