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Stocks Climb, Oil Falls as Trump Weighs War Exit
Posted
March 31, 2026
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March 31, 2026
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2:39
4:02Now PlayingAoifinn Devitt, Managing Director: Global Wealth at Moneta Group, discusses diversification strategies in volatile markets.
Wall Street is ending a volatile March with gains in stocks and bonds on a news report that President Donald Trump would be willing to end the war in Iran even with the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Oil fell.
The S&P 500 climbed about 1.5%, recovering some ground after a selloff that put the gauge on course for its worst month since 2022. Brent, which has soared about 50% since the start of the conflict, dropped to around $107. While crude prices remain elevated, their retreat from multiyear highs extended an advance in Treasuries. The dollar declined and gold rose.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would push the war beyond his timeline of four-to-six weeks. It also said the president resolved that the US should instead focus on crippling Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles, then wind down current hostilities.
“Sometimes the headlines make you scratch your head,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “If the US just walked away from the Middle East with the Strait still blockaded, energy markets would likely remain incredibly supply-constrained, keeping prices high. Maybe the market expects that if the US pulls back, the Strait would reopen.”
The war is entering its second month, with Iranian threats of retaliation continuing to keep the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that diplomatic talks to end the conflict are “gaining strength” and the US military’s job is to maintain pressure and compel Tehran to make a deal.
Trump lashed out at allies for not supporting the war in Iran, arguing the US will not fight for their interests as they struggle to get jet fuel blocked from traveling through the vital waterway. Wall Street staged a dramatic comeback at the end of March, with stocks climbing as oil fell on hopes that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.
Equities headed toward their biggest advance since May on speculation that both US and Iran might be looking for a way out of the war. The S&P 500 climbed over 2%. US crude, which has soared nearly 50% since the start of the conflict, dropped to around $102. Its retreat from multiyear highs extended an advance in Treasuries. The dollar declined and gold rose. On the economic front, data showed consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March on slightly more upbeat views of business and labor-market conditions. Job openings fell and hiring slowed in February, pointing to cooler labor demand before the war.
“There do appear to be some early signs of stabilization in both consumer confidence and job openings after a clear fourth-quarter downtrend,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “While that doesn’t yet signal a meaningful rebound, it may suggest the consumer and labor backdrop are no longer deteriorating at the same pace.”
Ultimately, both investors and consumers need to see notable de-escalation in the Middle East and some relief at the gas pump before confidence can rebound significantly, he added.
From here, Kenwell noted investors will look to Friday’s jobs report in hopes that it can offer signs of some stabilization in the labor market.
US employment probably rebounded in March after one of the biggest pullbacks in payrolls since the pandemic. Economists estimate 65,000 jobs were added following a 92,000 decline, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%.
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