Only Iran-Favored Ships Pass Hormuz as Trump Demands Reopening

Ellen Fraser, Partner & Energy Expert at Baringa Partners, discusses the continued uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump’s insistence that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the two sides head for diplomatic talks this weekend is having no effect, with transit still largely limited to Tehran-linked vessels.

Despite the start of a ceasefire that Washington said is conditional on resumed flows, just nine ships have been observed passing through the strait since Thursday morning — with five exiting the Persian Gulf and four entering.

Among the most important was the Suezmax oil tanker Tour 2, hauling about 1 million barrels of Iranian crude out of the waterway. A supertanker sailing under the flag of Russia, the Arhimeda, moved in the opposite direction, heading toward Iran’s main export terminal at Kharg Island.

The Iranian transits — and a distinct lack of movement of other vessels — demonstrate just what a grip Iran has on Hormuz and Tehran’s ability to control what passes through a strip of water that’s vital to the world economy.

“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Thursday. “You’ll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran and, to me, it makes no difference, either way.”

The US president also warned Iran against charging fees on tankers going through Hormuz. The US and Iran prepared for direct talks in Pakistan with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut and Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire, complicating efforts to turn a fragile truce into lasting peace.

The two-week ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump and Tehran was broadly holding across the Middle East on Friday. The exception was in Lebanon, where questions remain over whether Israel’s parallel campaign against Tehran-backed Hezbollah is part of the agreement.

Israel continued to strike towns in southern Lebanon, albeit on a smaller scale than the major operation that killed more than 200 people on Wednesday. Hezbollah said it launched drones and rocket salvos toward Israel, where medics reported treating several injured people in central and southern Israel.

A ceasefire in Lebanon is one measure that “must be fulfilled before negotiations begin,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X. The other is the “release of Iran’s blocked assets,” he said, without being more specific. US and Iranian delegations are set to meet in Islamabad on Saturday, with shipping through Hormuz — which handled about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war — also a central sticking point.

Trump told the New York Post on Friday that US warships are being reloaded with “the best ammunition” to launch fresh attacks if the talks faltered.

“We’re going to find out in about 24 hours,” Trump said, when asked if he believed negotiations would be successful.

Earlier Friday, Vice President JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation, told reporters as he left for Pakistan that Trump had given “clear guidelines” for the talks and urged Iran to take the negotiations seriously.

“If they’re going to try to play us, then they’re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive,” he said.

An Iranian delegation is expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night, officials in Pakistan’s capital said. Ghalibaf and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will lead the delegation, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private.

The Middle East war has killed thousands of people and damaged energy infrastructure across the oil-rich Persian Gulf in the past six weeks, while Iran’s ongoing shuttering of Hormuz has choked global fuel supplies.

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