Oil Rises as US Move to Block Iranian Ports Heightens Supply Risks

Rob Barnett, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy and Commodities Analyst, discusses the latest oil rally as the US begins its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil rose as a US blockade on vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports got underway, reigniting risks to energy supplies in the Persian Gulf region.

Brent traded around $100, while West Texas Intermediate for May was trading around $102 as US President Donald Trump intesified his rhetoric, threatening to “eliminate” any ships that come near the blockade. The threat has opened up both practical and logistical questions, including the risks of enforcement.

Such a blockade could cut off Iranian shipments, the only flow of Gulf oil that has continued throughout the war. Meanwhile, Tehran’s threats to target vessels and ports in response have amplified the risks for other producers.

The developments come as the cost of trading oil has surged — lowering liquidity in the market and leaving it more subject to volatile swings on headlines. Peace talks between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend jeopardizing a ceasefire reached last week. That’s raised fears that fighting in the region could reflare, further roiling energy markets and supply chains.

“Willing risk takers have probably been cut in half, and those that are left have cut their volumes by 75%,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TC ICAP.

“I would think prices should be higher than this for futures if not for a lack of shorts left in the market,” he said. “Every week is 100 million barrels lost and even if the US successfully pulls this move off, I struggle to see that happening this week or next, and I struggle to see the IRGC backing down either. Risks are clearly higher to me.”  President Donald Trump said the US would attack any Iranian vessels that approach US ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as his naval blockade of the vital waterway took effect Monday.

“Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED,” Trump said in a social-media post. He said the US would use the same tactics it did against alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean Sea in recent months.

Trump’s blockade will test the durability of a fragile ceasefire with Iran and intensifies a global energy crisis in a six-week war that’s seen thousands of deaths across the region. It marks the latest move by the US president to strong-arm Iran into easing its own chokehold over the strait after talks in Pakistan on extending the ceasefire failed to reach a deal. Oil prices soared as investors braced for further supply shortages if the US blockade curtails the flow of Iranian oil to global markets. Prices remained choppy, though, as trading costs have surged, in turn sapping liquidity. Brent crude traded near $102 per barrel while May US crude futures traded near $103 a barrel by 11:52 a.m. in New York.

Iran has said it would target all ports in the Persian Gulf if its own shipping hubs are threatened, setting up a fresh standoff in waters that typically see flows of about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

The security of ports in the region is “either for everyone or for no one,” Iran’s armed forces said in a statement on Monday, according to the state-run IRIB News. The US blocking the strait would be “an act of piracy,” it said, reiterating plans to permanently control the critical waterway even after the war. Shortly before the deadline, the US published a notice to vessels in the region saying that it would intercept, divert or capture vessels leaving Iran after that time. The note said that neutral ships that haven’t called at Iran would not be impeded, though they may be searched for contraband cargo.

The US blockade will be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas,” according to a Sunday statement from US Central Command, which said US forces would not impede vessels transiting Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

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