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Stocks, Bonds Fall as Renewed Hormuz Tension Stokes Inflation Fears
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April 20, 2026
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7:19Now PlayingStephen Parker, Co-Head of Global Investment Strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, discusses earnings resilience and Fed policy expectations.
A rally in oil drove stocks lower as a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on prospects for peace talks between the US and Iran before their fragile ceasefire deal expires on Tuesday.
Equities dropped from all-time highs, with the S&P 500 halting a five-day winning streak. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war that has rattled markets, threatening a global energy crisis. Brent crude hovered near $94. Treasury yields edged higher on worries that elevated energy prices will fuel inflation.
Iran held back from saying whether it would take part in further peace talks even after US President Trump said a delegation is on its way to Pakistan, creating uncertainty about whether a breakthrough can be achieved.
Transits through the key Strait of Hormuz have reduced to a trickle over seven weeks of war as Iran tightens control in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes. On Friday, that paralysis appeared to be at an end as Iran and the US announced a reopening, prompting crude to plunge — only for the situation to rapidly unravel.
“Well, that didn’t last long, did it? The much-talked-about ‘reopening’ of the Strait of Hormuz barely made it through a day before Friday’s tensions came straight back into play,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “Still, there’s a sense that both sides might be posturing — talking tough with the deadline looming to strengthen their negotiating hands.” Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a virtual standstill after a brief and confused reopening over the weekend ended with the first US seizure of an Iranian vessel — underscoring just how difficult it will be to restore activity in the vital strait.
Transits through the waterway have reduced to a trickle over seven weeks of war in the Persian Gulf, as Iran tightens control in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes. On Friday, that paralysis appeared to be at an end as Iran and the US announced a reopening, prompting oil to plunge and vessels to rush for the crossing — only for the situation to rapidly unravel.
By Sunday, the US navy had seized an Iranian cargo ship in waters off the Iranian port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman as it headed toward Hormuz — the first such move during this US blockade — raising the stakes for shipowners operating across the region and widening the area seen to be risky for transits. Benchmark oil jumped in response, as a historic supply crisis begins to look even more prolonged.
“The continued volatility will deter most, if not all shipowners, to adopt a cautious ‘wait and see’ approach,” said Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa Ltd. As of Monday early afternoon in London, just two Iran-linked liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and two oil product tankers — including one with Iranian ties — had transited the strait in both directions during the day. Liquefied natural gas tankers had also approached the strait in the wake of the apparent opening, but ultimately also U-turned or are idling while waiting for clarity.
A fragile US—Iran ceasefire is due to expire shortly. It is unclear whether that truce will be extended, or whether talks between US and Iranian officials in Islamabad will go ahead later this week.
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