Oil Traders Say Billion-Barrel Hole Will Linger Long After War

The impact of the Iran war will continue for months even after any deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s largest oil traders have warned. Some said flows through the waterway may never return to normal. Speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, executives at some of the world’s largest oil traders warned that the rewiring of the oil market would take months even if a peace deal is agreed soon. The market is not fully reflecting the impact of the massive supply disruption, they said, cautioning that prices will need to ratchet higher to the point of pushing the global economy toward a recession if the conflict continues. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global Commodities Research, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. She speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.  Iranian gunboats fired on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as Tehran maintained its grip on the vital energy channel, while two of its own oil supertankers tested a US blockade.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations, a naval liaison with the shipping industry, said on X that a cargo ship and a container ship came under fire in the waterway. Meanwhile, analytics firm Vortexa said Iran moved supertankers into the Arabian Sea, an area where the US has sought to block Iranian shipping. Iranian state TV reported later that the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had seized two ships — identified as the MSC Francesca and Epaminondas — in Hormuz and brought them to shore for inspection. The Wall Street Journal reported that both came under attack, as well as a third, the Euphoria.

The managers of all three vessels, as listed on the Equasis international shipping database, either didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The moves underscore Tehran’s aggressive stance in the face of US pressure at a time when talks between the two sides are in limbo. They also demonstrate the challenges of resolving a conflict that has eliminated a billion barrels of oil supply, according to top traders.

Two Supertankers

The supertankers that moved into the Arabian Sea were identified as the Hero II and Hedy. Vortexa used satellite imagery to hone in on the two Iran-flagged, very large crude carriers that it said entered area on April 20. The pair can together carry as much as 4 million barrels of oil.

Another Iranian VLCC, the Diona, appeared to turn back after entering the Arabian Sea from Hormuz, TankerTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani said. Iran shut Hormuz shortly after coming under attack from the US and Israel at the end of February.

The latest incidents demonstrate that, while US President Donald Trump has said that Iran’s navy has been destroyed, Tehran’s deployment of small boats to target commercial shipping remains a terrifying prospect.

The container ship was attacked at 2:55 a.m. London time, and sustained heavy damage to its bridge, the UKMTO said. The cargo ship wasn’t damaged but came to a stop after being fired upon about three hours later, UKMTO reported.

It wasn’t immediately clear if the attacks were on the same vessels as those that Iranian media subsequently said were seized.

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