Neither Party Benefits from Redistricting Fight, Says Strategist Alex Conant

Alex Conant, Partner at Firehouse Strategies and Republican Strategist says that as states finalize new Congressional districts neither party seems to be getting an advantage nationally.

Virginia voters backed a Democratic plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts in a way that could net them as many as four more US House seats in November’s midterm elections, according to multiple projections.

With about 99% of the ballots in Tuesday’s referendum counted, the “Yes” vote led the “No” side by 51.5% to 48.6%.  The vote marked one of the final acts in a yearlong national battle sparked when Republicans moved to change voting boundaries in Texas, in an effort to keep GOP control of the US House in the midterms. It also served as an early test for Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger, who supported the referendum as a response to Republican moves in other states. The vote marked one of the final acts in a yearlong national battle sparked when Republicans moved to change voting boundaries in Texas, in an effort to keep GOP control of the US House in the midterms. It also served as an early test for Democratic Governor Abigail Spanberger, who supported the referendum as a response to Republican moves in other states.

With the party in power in Washington typically losing ground in midterm elections, there is a lot at stake for President Donald Trump. The president has implored Republicans to do all they can to maintain control of Congress in November. Losing the House majority would potentially unleash a series of investigations and possible impeachment trials, and make it significantly harder for Trump to get legislation and federal budgets he supports passed.

Read more: How Redistricting Keeps Changing the US Political Map: QuickTake

The Virginia vote shifts the state from having one of the most balanced congressional delegations in Washington — Democrats hold a narrow 6-5 edge, with several swing seats in play — to instead packing Republican voters together in such a way that they’d only be favored in one district. Former President Barack Obama was enlisted to boost enthusiasm for the measure, while Republicans countered with “Stop the Steal” signs and a campaign saying their voices would be drowned out unless it failed.

Trump tried to rally voters against the Virginia measure on Monday night, saying in a radio interview that passage would “be a disaster.”

“If they do this, they’re guaranteed to pick up a lot of seats,” Trump said.

In social media post Wednesday, Trump said the referendum was a “rigged election,” echoing his unfounded allegations about his 2020 defeat in the presidential election. He called on the legal system to “fix this travesty of ‘Justice.’” Republican infighting over the decision to press for redistricting erupted soon after the results came in.

“If you’re going to pick a fight, at least win it,” former White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, who spoke out against Texas’ redistricting last year, said on X. “We should not have started this fight.”

Republicans have at least one more hand to play, with a special legislative session in Florida set for next week to redraw their own GOP-built map to be even more favorable.

Assuming Florida lawmakers pass that plan, it would effectively make the back-and-forth moves by partisans on both sides a draw.

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