US, Iran Deadlocked Over Hormuz, Trump Extends Truce

Dina Esfandiary, Middle East Geoeconomics Lead for Bloomberg Economics, examines the state of play in the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran after the two sides failed to meet for more peace talks, with the war developing into a game of brinkmanship over the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said Pakistan, the main mediator between the warring sides, asked the US to hold off on a threatened resumption of airstrikes, after Tehran said it wouldn’t attend the planned negotiations in Islamabad. The truce announced on April 7 will stay in place until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other,” Trump said on Truth Social late Tuesday.

While that means the US-Israel alliance and Iran won’t immediately return to fighting a war that’s killed thousands of people and sent energy prices soaring, there’s still no sign the vital Hormuz waterway will be reopened to oil and liquefied natural gas shipments soon.

Trump maintained a naval blockade of ships going to and from Iran’s ports, which Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called a violation of the ceasefire, while Tehran is keeping the strait closed to almost all other international traffic. Iranian gunboats fired on two ships in the strait on Wednesday, maintaining their grip on the channel.

The standoff over Hormuz extends the choking of the transit point for about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies to almost two months, increasing the risk of a global inflation crisis. The standoff over Hormuz extends the choking of the transit point for about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies to almost two months, increasing the risk of a global inflation crisis.

Read More: Iran Gunboats Menace Hormuz as Its Own Tankers Test US Blockade

Trump’s comments came just after planned talks between Vice President JD Vance and Iranian delegates were called off. While the president had said on Monday he was highly unlikely to lengthen the ceasefire beyond a late Wednesday expiry date, he is under mounting pressure from Americans, who largely oppose the war, to reduce fuel prices.

Read More: Iran Satellite Data Reveal Scope and Scale of US-Israeli Strikes

Trump “cornered himself” because he doesn’t want a return to combat, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow specializing in Iran at the Middle East Institute. “He has made a strategic error of thinking that shouting louder and louder at the Iranians is going to pay off. This is not going to work with this regime. Pressure works much better quietly than publicly.”

The US president blamed divisions among the Islamic Republic’s leaders for the need to extend the truce. Aside from Hormuz, the sides remain far apart on longer-term issues such as the status of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, and its support for militant groups across the Middle East.

Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz — effectively shut since the start of the war at the end of February — or restart peace talks until the US naval blockade ends.

On Wednesday morning, Iran’s envoy to the United Nations said the country had “received some sign” the US was ready to lift the blockade, without giving further details.

“As soon as they break this blockade, I think that the next round of the negotiations will take place in Islamabad,” Amir-Saeid Iravani was cited as saying by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news site.

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