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Traders Bet Warsh's Fed Will Hike Rates by December
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May 22, 2026
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3:06Now PlayingBond traders are fully pricing in an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, a sign of conviction in the market that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will need to move quickly to combat inflation.
Traders boosted their bets for higher rates on Friday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports making clear the central bank’s next interest-rate move is just as likely to be an increase as a cut. Interest-rate swaps imply that the market sees the Fed’s benchmark rate at least 25 basis points higher by the end of 2026.
It’s a complete turnaround from earlier this year, when President Trump’s selection of Warsh to lead the Fed inspired Wall Street to bet on several rate reductions in 2026. Traders quickly re-calibrated those wagers after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. For more on the inflation outlook, we speak with Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist at Nationwide.
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