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Sugar Optimism Hinges on El Niño Impact

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May 27, 2026

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As Americans confront a surge in prices at the pump, another inflation wave is headed for the grocery store.

A combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace.

In April, they rose by the most in nearly four years, and economists say the impact of the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures into 2027.

Arkady Gevorkyan, Citi Commodities Strategist, breaks down how this weather pattern will impact pricing across commodities, especially sugar.

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