Cenk Uygur
@TheYoungTurks·6.5M subscribers·72.8K videos
Italian Scientists Convicted Over Earthquake Prediction
Posted
October 28, 2012
Views
44,850
Likes
1,064
Comments
533
Engagement
3.56%
October 28, 2012
44,850
1,064
533
3.56%
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4:23Now Playing"This week six scientists and one government official were sentenced to six years in prison for manslaughter, for making "falsely reassuring" comments before the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. But was this fair?
First, we have to understand limits of earthquake science. Ian Main, Professor of Seismology and Rock Physics at the University of Edinburgh, was part of an international commission on earthquake forecasting set up after L'Aquila.
He says it is possible to predict where an earthquake might happen at some point. But it is impossible accurately to predict exactly when that earthquake will happen.
"We can forecast that they're almost certain to happen with a very low probability - maybe once in 100, once in 1,000 years depending on the size of an earthquake and in a given zone. And that's a hazard that's there all the time," says Main."* Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola (TYT University), and Dave Koller break down the divide between scientists and politicians, and whether or not its a good idea to set a legal precedent such as this.
*Read more from Charlotte Pritchard/BBC News
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