November 5, 2016
234,744
3,108
1,371
1.91%
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7:14Now PlayingThere are some very important swing states that will determine the results of the election. Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola, and Michael Shure, hosts of The Young Turks, break it down. Tell us what you think in the comment section below.
“Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don’t perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An average of national polls in the week before the 2008 election had Barack Obama winning by 7.6 percentage points. He won by 7.3 points. Sometimes, however, the polls miss by more. Four years ago, an average of survey results the week before the election had Obama winning by 1.2 percentage points. He actually beat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points.
If that 2.7-point error doesn’t sound like very much to you, well, it’s very close to what Donald Trump needs to overtake Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. She leads by 3.3 points in our polls-only forecast.
And 2012 isn’t an outlier. For presidential contests since 1968, here’s the average of national polls taken a week before the election compared with the final result.”
Read more here
Hosts: Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola, Michael Shure
Cast: Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola, Michael Shure
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Young Turk (n), 1. Young progressive or insurgent member of an institution, movement, or political party. 2. Young person who rebels against authority or societal expectations. (American Heritage Dictionary)
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