June 17, 2023
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6:20Now PlayingHillary Clinton posts a cringey tweet about her emails following Trump's indictment. Clinton is still stuck in the past. Guest Host Rayyvana and Jackson White break it down on Unbossed.
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If there is a path to the White House for Donald Trump, it almost certainly will follow roads like Interstate 75, 80, and 94 that rumble through the big battleground states across the Rust Belt.
Large Rust Belt prizes such as Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would be indispensable for any Trump general-election bid because they offer him the best chance to tip states primarily by widening the GOP advantage among the blue-collar white voters who have keyed his advance in the Republican primaries.
Whites without a college degree exceed their share of the national vote in all of those states except Pennsylvania (where they equal the national share). And in each of them, Democrats have run slightly better among those working-class whites than they have elsewhere—a pattern that helped President Obama carry all five states in both of his victories. If Trump, as the general-election nominee, can merely drive down the Democratic vote among working-class whites in the Rust Belt to the level of Obama’s national performance in 2012, he can threaten to take all of these states, especially Ohio and Iowa.
“I look in Iowa along the Mississippi River, where you have all these blue-collar people, John McCain and Mitt Romney didn’t communicate to those people, they did not relate,” says Craig Robinson, the former political director for the Iowa Republican Party and founder of The Iowa Republican website. “Trump, even with some of the problems his campaign has, I think he speaks to those people and they come into play. With his populist message and getting tough with companies that outsource, he has a market, and it is a market the GOP has struggled with.”
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