Trump Gets Ominous Warning About His Election Chances
October 1, 2024
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7:30Now PlayingTrump Gets Ominous Warning About His Election Chances
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as posted by the channelPolling may not be painting a clear picture of the 2024 election, but then again, it just might be. David Shuster discusses on The Young Turks. Your Support is Crucial to the Show
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"Pollsters caution against assuming that the polls this cycle are susceptible to the same errors as previous ones that underestimated support for former President Trump, arguing that every election is different and that this year’s polls are an accurate reflection of the competitiveness of the race.
Polls now show Vice President Harris leading Trump by about 4 points, according to the average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ. But the race in the roughly half dozen battleground states is even closer, and a polling error like the ones in the past could mean Trump is in a stronger position to prevail than the data says.
But polling analysts say it’s not that simple.
“We don’t always see the misses in the same direction,” said Chris Jackson, the senior vice president of public affairs for Ipsos. “I can tell you that the polling industry has done substantial changes to how we do our surveys to try to account for what we think was driving those errors in 2020. So while there undoubtedly will be errors in the future, they’re probably going to be driven by different things and go in different directions.”
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