CRACKS in the Coalition of the Willing / Lt Col Daniel Davis

Western Ammunition Depletion:

The UK and EU have depleted their munitions stockpiles by sending old or excess supplies to Ukraine.

These supplies were often destroyed after arrival, particularly in Poland.

Europe now has little left and is borrowing money to fund further aid, with no clear return on investment.

Western Narratives vs. Reality:

Western leaders and media have repeatedly claimed Russia was on the verge of collapse—running out of ammunition, tanks, and troops—which has proven false.

In contrast, Russia has increased military production and reportedly has far superior industrial and manpower reserves compared to Ukraine and the West.

Russian Military Strength:

Russia is producing more equipment and munitions than the combined West, bolstered by support from countries like North Korea.

Russia also has a large reserve of trained military personnel they can still mobilize, unlike Ukraine.

Inevitability of Russian Advances:

If diplomatic solutions fail, Russia is likely to continue expanding on the battlefield.

Ukrainian manpower and resources are insufficient to resist a sustained Russian offensive.

Diplomacy & U.S. Role:

Unlike Western Europe, which is accused of ignoring root causes, the U.S. is engaging in deeper discussions with Russia, including post-war relations, disarmament, and economic issues.

Russian officials, particularly Lavrov, emphasize that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a red line and must be reversed permanently for peace.

Territorial Demands:

Russia dismisses the idea of returning to Ukraine’s 1991 borders.

The "minimum" Russian demands now appear to include full control over the four annexed regions and possibly more territory, especially areas with significant ethnic Russian populations.

Russian Offensive Movements:

Video and intelligence suggest Russia is mobilizing for a new offensive, especially in the Zaporizhzhia region.

These movements signal strategic intent, not just bargaining, as Russia appears ready and willing to continue advancing militarily.

Zelensky’s Position:

Ukraine continues to request more Western support, particularly Patriot missile systems, but has received little.

Ukraine’s stance remains firm on not ceding territory, though this position appears increasingly untenable given the military imbalance.