ORESHNIK Strikes to Follow Putin Trump Phone Call /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Patrik Baab

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The discussion centers on the expected Russian retaliation following a recent Ukrainian drone strike targeting Russia’s bomber fleet. There is anticipation over what Putin’s next move will be, especially given increasing tensions and recent statements from both the Kremlin and the White House.

Trump acknowledged in a recent call that Putin was hit hard and is likely to respond but made no mention of deterring him. Analysts note that while Russia tends to respond in a calculated, consistent manner, the U.S.—and Trump in particular—has been inconsistent, oscillating between calls for de-escalation and threats of strong retaliation.

The drone attack is compared to past Ukrainian strikes, including one that hit a Russian nuclear early-warning radar system, which had derailed diplomatic talks at the time. The current strike’s timing, just ahead of an international summit, is seen as similarly provocative.

Commentators suggest the U.S. may be covertly supporting such actions while maintaining public distance, possibly using allies like the UK for plausible deniability. Meanwhile, voices like Gen. Jack Keane urge Trump to revert to Biden-era levels of military support to ensure Russia "can't win."

Overall, the discussion reveals a complex, fragmented strategy from the West, with conflicting messages and policy drift from Washington, while Russia is expected to retaliate in its typical methodical style—potentially escalating the conflict further.