China, Russia & Iran - Now What? Lt Col Daniel Davis & Harry Kaz

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Commodity Prices & Post-War Spending

A broader Middle East conflict is not in anyone’s interest short term.

Long term, if Iran remains stable post-conflict, it may invest heavily in Chinese military tech (e.g., J-35 stealth fighters, air defenses).

Israel may not have fully considered this outcome; Iran is unlikely to stay unprepared again.

2. Limits of Israeli Strategy

Targeted actions like assassinating non-state actors (e.g., Hezbollah leaders) differ drastically from toppling a state like Iran.

Iran’s regime is resilient; removing one leader won’t result in collapse.

Israel appears to lack the means for a full regime change, making its current strategy aimless or chaotic.

3. The Nuclear Question

While Israel may genuinely want to eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat, nuclear weapons are old technology and can be deterred.

Deterrence works—nations like Pakistan and North Korea are not attacked due to their nuclear capabilities.

If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, it wouldn’t spell the end of Israel but would end Israeli unilateralism and potentially usher in a new form of regional stability.

4. Broader Implications of Nuclear Deterrence

Countries pursue nukes as insurance against regime change.

U.S. military dominance becomes limited once a rival state becomes nuclear.

This explains urgency from Israel and reluctance from the U.S. to engage directly.

5. Fallout from Leaving JCPOA

Critics of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) ignore that it had effectively delayed Iran’s breakout capability.

Actions like abandoning the deal and military strikes may be pushing Iran toward a “race to a bomb.”

6. Regional Arab Governments' Reaction

Publicly, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey condemn Israel’s actions and call for restraint.

Privately, some diplomats admit they’re okay with the strike—if it delays Iran’s nuclear program without causing a regional war.

7. Axis of Isolated States Growing Closer

Conflicts are drawing together nations like Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea.

Iran could now pursue advanced missile and nuclear technologies, perhaps aided by North Korea or Russia.

Solid-fuel ICBMs and submarine-launched missiles may be within reach for Iran if it devotes enough resources.

8. Europe's Position

Countries like Germany, France, and the UK, once major backers of the JCPOA, have shown more willingness to engage Iran diplomatically—though the situation may now be shifting due to recent developments.

Conclusion:

The speaker argues that while Israel’s desire to eliminate a nuclear threat is understandable, its current approach may backfire—accelerating Iran’s nuclear ambitions and deepening global instability. Meanwhile, regional governments show a mix of public condemnation and private acceptance, and global power dynamics are pushing isolated nations into increasingly dangerous alliances.