Putin in TROUBLE? He Doesn't Think So /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to evolve, particularly in the domain of drone warfare. Ukraine now claims Russia can deploy up to 600 Shahed/Geran drones in a single wave, a significant increase from earlier numbers. Both sides are rapidly advancing in drone interceptor technology, aiming to counter these strikes. The trajectory of the conflict may depend on whether Ukraine can produce enough intercepting drones or whether Russia will maintain drone superiority through sheer volume.

Politically, perceptions of the war differ starkly. A July 3 phone call between Trump and Putin revealed conflicting expectations: Trump expected an unconditional ceasefire, which Putin did not offer. Putin, consistent with his previous positions, appears to want a comprehensive settlement rather than a temporary ceasefire.

There’s disagreement about Russia’s willingness to negotiate. While Western commentators often claim Russia has no intent to pursue peace, some argue that Russia was open to a settlement in 2022 but Ukraine pulled out, likely due to confidence bolstered by Western military support. As of now, Putin is said to be seeking a long-term solution, not a temporary pause, while Trump wants a ceasefire to boost his image.

In response to Putin’s unwillingness to yield, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on nations that support Russia’s war effort, including on Russian exports. This may have driven Moscow to consult closely with China, possibly to secure economic and diplomatic backing in case such sanctions are enacted.

On the battlefield, there’s a stalemate. Despite high casualties on both sides and intense losses of equipment, Russia continues to make slow but steady territorial gains, whereas Ukraine is praised by Western observers for its resilience and democratic function.

Commentary in outlets like the Washington Post suggests Putin is maintaining the war to assert Russia’s global relevance and due to a deep-seated belief in an inevitable conflict with the U.S. and the West. However, a Russian commentator in the discussion pushes back against this, asserting that ordinary Russians do not harbor hostility toward Americans, and that the Russian government remains interested in mending relations with the U.S.

Ultimately, both sides appear entrenched, with each believing time and endurance are on their side—Russia through battlefield attrition and industrial strength, Ukraine through international support and moral legitimacy. Whether diplomacy will emerge depends on shifts in internal political will and battlefield conditions.