Russian Offensive Continues as 'Talks' Hang in the Balance /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Russian forces are intensifying operations across multiple fronts in Ukraine.

South (Kherson area) – Russia has escalated attacks on a key bridge to an island-like area near Kherson City, possibly preparing for an amphibious assault to isolate and retake parts of the city.

East (Pokrovsk sector) – Significant Russian advances inside the city, pushing toward a fortified “citadel” of high-rises. They aim to bypass Ukrainian defenders, cut supply routes, and potentially trap large forces. Ukraine’s troop density there is thinning, making rapid Russian progress possible.

North of Pokrovsk – Russia is close to seizing the last major supply road into the area and is moving toward high ground and strongholds that could complete the encirclement.

Kostiantynivka front – Additional Russian forces are pressing forward following recent gains.

Kupiansk area – The city is nearly encircled (“semi-cauldron”), with intensified fighting in surrounding gray zones.

Other fronts – Minor back-and-forth clashes in some sectors, but Russia is concentrating its main effort where it sees the best chance for decisive gains.

New concern – Large-scale Russian troop movements into Belarus for the Zapad-2025 drills (officially said to be 13,000 troops; NATO estimates ~150,000). This raises fears of a renewed northern offensive toward Kyiv, which is lightly defended in that sector. The troop presence there already exceeds Russia’s 2022 invasion numbers in the north, while ~600,000 Russian troops remain engaged in the south and east.

Overall, Russia appears to be applying pressure on multiple fronts, aiming to cut supply lines, encircle Ukrainian forces, and potentially threaten Kyiv from Belarus.