Lt Col Daniel Davis: Ukraine's Army Poses No Threat to Russia Anytime Soon

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Post-war, Ukraine will face major demographic challenges maintaining a sustainable military force, even if troop caps are set high, making some concessions appear less costly in practice. Russia’s main security concerns center on specific capabilities—combat aircraft, early-warning systems, long-range missiles, and deep-range air defense radars—while other aspects remain negotiable. A feasible deal could secure Ukraine and address Russian concerns, but political will is lacking.

For Trump, the advice is:

Don’t overestimate leverage—sanctions or military threats won’t sway Putin; Trump’s real power is the option to walk away, which Putin wants to avoid to secure certain strategic aims only the U.S. can grant.

Resist spoilers—especially European leaders pushing maximalist conditions (NATO membership, binding guarantees, no territorial concessions) that make peace impossible and may reflect Europe’s desire to keep the U.S. militarily engaged.

Be willing to walk away—U.S. stakes in Ukraine are limited; the war’s continuation drains resources and risks escalation, including nuclear conflict. If no workable peace is possible, disengagement wouldn’t harm U.S. security or credibility, as other nations judge U.S. commitments context-by-context.

Worst-case outcome if talks fail is a return to the status quo of ongoing war, but deeper U.S. entanglement would be more damaging to American interests.