Trump Must Be Ready to Walk Away /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jennifer Kavanagh

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The discussion outlines expectations and challenges for Trump’s upcoming meeting with Putin over the Ukraine war:

Likely Outcome – Best-case scenario is a commitment to further talks—either a second Trump-Putin meeting, possibly including Zelensky, and follow-up working-level sessions. This could be a vague statement to “keep talking” or a framework agreement signaling intent toward a ceasefire. A grand bargain ending the war in one meeting is highly unlikely.

Trump’s Motives – He prefers high-profile bilateral summits and may be motivated by recent signs of flexibility from Putin. Critics suggest he’s also stalling to avoid imposing sanctions he promised but doesn’t believe will work.

Risks for Trump – Avoid impatience or “quick win” deals that look good but lack substance. Putin often uses agreements in principle to delay. Concrete, narrow, actionable commitments are better than broad but empty pledges.

Land Swaps Misconception – Trump appears to see territorial trades as the main solution, but the war’s roots go beyond territory. Key issues include Ukraine’s security alignment, military size, minority protections, and election arrangements. Large-scale swaps are politically and logistically hard; small front-line adjustments post-ceasefire are common.

Ukrainian Pressures – Politically difficult to cede land not yet lost, but battlefield conditions are worsening. Russia is advancing faster than at most other times in the war, risking collapse in the Donbass without compensation.

Potential Path to Peace – A deal is possible, but only over multiple meetings. Russia might accept freezing the conflict along current lines in exchange for Ukrainian concessions like halting Western aid and demobilization. A long-term solution could involve “armed non-alignment”: Ukraine outside NATO, defensively strong but not offensively threatening to Russia.