UKRAINE Now Losing the DRONE WAR /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Danny argues Ukraine faces an unsustainable war and will either have to negotiate a settlement on “ugly” terms or suffer eventual defeat. They highlight:

Russia’s strategy: A long-term war of attrition, prioritizing drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid, transport, oil facilities, and weapons depots.

Drone escalation: Since 2024, Russia has massively ramped up drone production and attacks—over 34,000 drones/decoys used in 2025, nine times more than last year. Weekly drone strikes now exceed 2,000, with an increasing share bypassing defenses.

Ukraine’s limits: Despite claims of shooting down 90% of drones, evidence of destruction suggests otherwise. Even if true, Russia’s sheer volume overwhelms defenses. U.S.-supplied Patriot systems are more effective against missiles, not swarms of cheap drones.

Russian adaptability: They adjust routes, use decoys, and exploit terrain, constantly evolving tactics, while Ukraine struggles to scale defenses.

Strategic picture: Western leaders misjudge Russia by measuring progress in territorial gains rather than the degradation of Ukraine’s ability to wage war.

Conclusion: Russia is waging a slow, methodical campaign that Ukraine cannot sustain. Western aid packages won’t reverse the trend because Russia continually adapts. Therefore, Ukraine cannot win militarily; negotiations are the only path to avoid outright defeat.