RUSSIA Has NO VOTE Ukraine Gets to Decide /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

At the Warsaw Security Forum, General Keith Kellogg dismissed Russia’s role in decision-making over Ukraine, insisting Moscow “doesn’t get a vote.” He argued that Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, and its coalition partners can independently choose actions like troop deployments or even a no-fly zone, regardless of Russian objections.

Commodore Steve Jeremy strongly disagreed, noting that in reality Russia has repeatedly “had a vote” through its power on the battlefield. Since February 2022, Moscow’s decisions and capabilities have shaped the course of the war, demonstrating that the West cannot simply impose conditions on Russia. He described Kellogg’s stance as “fantastical thinking,” lacking any workable strategy to achieve its goals.

The conversation drew parallels to past U.S. overconfidence:

After Afghanistan, the U.S. believed in its military supremacy and “network-centric warfare,” which fed into the Iraq invasion.

In 2003, George W. Bush’s “with us or against us” posture ignored European opposition, leading to a war based on false premises.

Similar attitudes of invulnerability and unilateralism are now resurfacing in rhetoric toward Russia, a nuclear superpower.

Jeremy argued this mindset shows “cult-like thinking” in the West, where political spin and self-made narratives seduce leaders and populations into believing illusions of power despite repeated failures. He listed “five failed wars” (including Ukraine) as evidence that the West is not all-powerful, yet leaders still act as though they are.

The discussion then turned to Russia’s growing strength:

Putin has ordered 135,000 conscripts for fall 2024, the largest in nine years, on top of 160,000 earlier in the year.

Russia’s active force is expanding to around 1.5 million troops, up from 900,000 in 2022.

Despite speculation over losses, Russia has replenished its ranks, modernized equipment, and its soldiers now have combat experience.

This creates a lopsided balance: Ukraine cannot match Russia’s manpower or resources, making Western claims of dismissing Moscow’s influence appear detached from reality.

Finally, speculation arose about possible backchannel talks between Washington and Moscow. Referencing the Cuban Missile Crisis, commentators suggested there could be quiet, ongoing negotiations hidden from public view. Trump’s interactions with Putin, including at Alaska, may reflect U.S. efforts to manage domestic politics while signaling an eventual disengagement.

The “zigzag” metaphor was used to describe U.S. policy: appearing inconsistent—shifting left and right—but always trending toward an underlying “base course” of exiting the war. The implication is that Washington ultimately seeks to offload responsibility onto Europe and Ukraine, while framing any failure as Europe’s, not America’s.