TOMAHAWK MISSILES: Real Story is Scarcity /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Jennifer Kavanagh

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The idea of sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine was floated but is now reportedly off the table. U.S. stockpiles and production are already stretched, with fewer than 500 produced annually and most allocated to U.S. military needs. Tomahawks are powerful, long-range, precision weapons, but Ukraine has no viable launch platforms (submarines, destroyers, or Typhon ground systems), meaning they could only be fired by U.S. forces directly—an unacceptable escalation. Even if provided, they’d require U.S. intelligence and targeting support, drawing America deeper into the war.

Analysts argue the proposal was never realistic, perhaps meant only to signal or pressure Russia. Putin has warned that Tomahawk use would mark a new stage of U.S. involvement, giving him justification to escalate further, as he did after Ukraine’s use of ATACMS.

Meanwhile, proposals like David Petraeus’s plan—focused on security guarantees, sanctions, and more advanced drones (including underwater drone submarines)—are criticized as ineffective. Russia has surpassed Ukraine in drone production and sophistication, and while Ukraine’s maritime drone strikes have successfully pushed back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and reopened grain trade routes, these efforts remain peripheral. The real war will be decided on land.

The broader takeaway: U.S. interests likely lie in disengagement and diplomacy, but domestic politics and fear of appearing to “lose Ukraine” keep Washington entangled. Weapons like Tomahawks would escalate U.S.-Russia confrontation without changing the war’s fundamentals.