Russia Ukraine: NO FUNDAMENTALS CHANGING /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Danny argues that President Trump’s belief that the threat of Tomahawk missiles could bring Russia to the negotiating table is misguided and rooted in impatience and illusion rather than strategy.

After Trump’s long phone call with Putin, talk began of future meetings in Hungary with hopes of ending the war. Ukrainian President Zelensky claimed that the only reason Russia agreed to talks was the threat of Tomahawks—so he began pushing for those missiles himself. But the U.S. would have to fire them, since Ukraine can’t operate them; they require months of training.

Zelensky, however, assumes Trump will eventually change his mind, as Biden did with earlier weapon systems like F-16s and long-range missiles. The speaker insists that even if Ukraine gets Tomahawks, it won’t matter—individual weapons don’t alter the war’s underlying balance of power. The outcome depends on industrial capacity, manpower, and national will—areas where Russia still dominates.

Trump’s impulsiveness—his desire for immediate action, as shown by anecdotes like bulldozing the White House’s east wing—means he may hand over weapons or impose sanctions simply to do something, regardless of results. But none of this changes the fundamentals: Russia holds the advantage in a grinding war of attrition.

Meanwhile, Moscow warns that new sanctions and attacks on its “shadow fleet” could be treated as acts of war. Despite Western hopes, Russia’s objectives—neutral Ukraine, no NATO expansion, demilitarization, and protection for Russian speakers—remain unchanged.

In short, the speaker concludes that Trump’s threats, sanctions, and impatience won’t alter the strategic reality. Russia will continue advancing methodically, while Ukraine—outmanned, outproduced, and exhausted—cannot win a prolonged war of attrition.