UNPREDICTABILITITY & TOUGHNESS: China & Trump /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Alastair Crooke warns against treating China as an enemy or relying on bluster: tough talk only works if backed by real leverage — otherwise China will see through bluffing.

Xi (referred to as “Z”) prepared to meet Trump with deliberate unpredictability and real leverage, so China is not bluffing.

U.S. rhetoric about dominating AI and tech is partly performative; massive data centers raise GDP figures but may not translate into broad employment or the expected windfall revenues.

There’s skepticism that AI will become the next “petrodollar”–style economic engine; returns may be small relative to the capital invested.

Wall Street donors and powerful financial interests prefer normalization with Russia (to access resources) and have long-standing economic motives; they also wield influence through support for Israel and congressional power.

Trump could make deals with Beijing or Moscow, but those deals would require significant concessions — and normalization with Russia faces strong domestic and geopolitical opposition.

Recent U.S. sanctions on two large Russian oil firms (aimed at partners like China and India) are more politically significant than economically devastating; China has signaled it will continue trading with Russia and expects the U.S. to stay out of China–Russia–Iran relations.

Russia is unlikely to accept a renewed “frozen conflict” (another Minsk-style settlement); many Russians see that as a trap that would leave them vulnerable later and are determined not to repeat it.