NATO & Russia: The DYNAMIC FACTS /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy

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Danny & Steve Jermy argue that Russia is unlikely to conquer all of Ukraine. Instead, they believe Russia aims to secure the four annexed oblasts, Crimea, and eventually the broader Novorossiya region if the West shows no interest in negotiations. After that, Russia would build a strong defensive line and wait out the West, achieving most of its stated strategic goals.

They emphasize that Russia does not want a war with NATO, but is preparing for the possibility due to NATO statements and actions. Russia is stockpiling weapons, training reserves, and restructuring conscription in case of a future NATO conflict—primarily for defense, not expansion beyond Ukraine.

Meanwhile, NATO leaders (such as Mark Rutte) speak about collective defense and readiness to fight Russia, China, and North Korea. The speakers criticize this rhetoric as unrealistic and politically motivated. They argue:

NATO could not actually win a conventional war against Russia due to military shortcomings, logistics vulnerabilities, and lack of political will.

Many NATO countries would be unwilling to engage in a war triggered in Eastern Europe.

Western militaries lack the battlefield experience Ukraine had, and Ukraine itself is being defeated.

NATO leadership is overstating strength while revealing real weakness, undermining deterrence.

The speakers conclude that Russia is preparing prudently for defense, while NATO leaders talk tough for political and financial reasons—especially to justify large increases in defense spending.