Ukraine Casualties v. Russian Territory Gained /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

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Over the past two months, Russia has rapidly expanded its territorial gains in Ukraine—possibly up to 900–1,000 sq km in a single month, which analysts say would be a wartime record. But experts emphasize that Russia’s primary objective is not territory, but demilitarization: destroying Ukraine’s military potential. By their estimates (which cannot be independently verified), Russia has effectively destroyed the equivalent of the Ukrainian army two or three times over, caused severe personnel losses, and degraded Ukraine’s infrastructure, economy, and air defenses.

This strategic approach—destroying capacity first—allows Russia to capture territory more easily later in a “single blow.”

Because Ukraine faces massive casualties, desertions, and shrinking manpower, analysts argue that Ukraine may soon be unable to continue the war, regardless of political desires in Kyiv.

This battlefield trend has revived talk of a 28-point U.S.-led peace plan, reportedly crafted by Secretary of State Witkoff and Jared Kushner—not by Russia. However, U.S. hawks argue that Putin is only feigning interest in negotiations to ease upcoming U.S. sanctions.

Russian officials say they’re willing to review the proposal, but they insist their core conditions remain unchanged:

Ukraine must withdraw from four oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson).

Ukraine must abandon NATO membership.

Europe, however, is strongly opposed to negotiations under these terms and has pressured Zelensky not to engage in talks—just as they previously opposed U.S.–Russia mediation attempts earlier in 2025.

Inside Russia, polling shows some growing fatigue with the war, which may give Putin a modest incentive to consider compromise. One idea reportedly discussed between Trump and Putin is using the current front line—not full political borders—as the de facto boundary in the southern oblasts (Zaporizhzhia and Kherson). Analysts stress that details are unclear and not publicly confirmed.

Russian military leaders, however, insist they will not “give back” any of the southern oblasts and will simply take them all militarily if the deal demands territorial concessions.

Finally, observers note that the reported U.S. peace plan does not address "denazification," a condition Russia listed in 2024. It remains unclear whether Moscow would drop or soften this requirement in a final settlement.