The New German War Machine /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Isaac Stanley-Becker

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Isaac's article:

The New German War Machine

After World War II, Germany embraced pacifism as a form of atonement. Now the country is arming itself again.

The discussion centers on the ongoing difficulty of reaching a diplomatic settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war and the Trump administration’s approach to it. One participant notes that European officials are puzzled by President Trump’s reluctance to use strong rhetoric against Russia, even though he is comfortable being blunt with Ukraine and European partners. They argue Trump often seems unwilling to criticize Russian wrongdoing, which they see as a longstanding mystery.

Others counter that Trump believes Western choices helped prolong the war by ignoring available diplomatic off-ramps, and that he sees the conflict as unwinnable under current Western strategies. Trump officials reportedly think the West cannot compel Russia to accept Ukrainian or European terms—and that Russia, by contrast, can impose its own—making negotiations extremely hard.

There is speculation that Trump may eventually threaten to withdraw U.S. support entirely if Ukraine refuses to accept “ugly” terms closer to Moscow’s demands. The panel agrees this is more likely than Trump dramatically escalating U.S. aid or sanctions to pressure Russia.

They also note contradictions: Trump allowed Ukraine certain battlefield freedoms the Biden administration had restricted, yet he remains rhetorically harsh toward Zelensky while avoiding equal toughness toward Moscow.

One side argues Russia overwhelmingly holds the military advantage and the West should recognize that Ukraine cannot win militarily. The other argues that if U.S. and European capabilities are included, the balance is more complex—and that tougher rhetoric, more aid, sanctions, and license for Ukrainian strikes could generate leverage needed for a negotiated settlement.

Both agree on the core problem: the West has limited ability to force Russia into concessions, yet an approach that pressures only Ukraine has also failed to produce results. The stalemate continues as neither side sees a clear path to compelling the other toward a diplomatic off-ramp.