Venezuela: Maduro Not Taking the Bait /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Larry Johnson

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Larry Johnson estimates a 60% chance the U.S. will carry out a limited strike on Venezuela—mainly symbolic and militarily ineffective—because the U.S. lacks the ground forces required for any meaningful intervention. Venezuela’s terrain, size (three times Vietnam), and trained military/paramilitary forces make a ground campaign impossible with the ~18,000 personnel currently deployed, most of whom aren’t ground troops.

He argues the U.S. is trying to provoke Maduro into reacting—similar to how the U.S. tried to provoke Noriega in 1988—highlighting a recent 40-minute U.S. fighter jet incursion into Venezuelan airspace as an example of bait. Maduro, however, is refusing to respond, coordinating quietly with Russia, China, Iran, and regional leaders.

Trump’s public statements that “Maduro’s days are numbered” create political pressure: if Trump doesn’t act after deploying large combat power, he risks looking weak—yet acting risks a costly, unwinnable conflict. The deployment has dragged on for four months with no results, stressing naval crews and burning money.

Internally, the U.S. military is dealing with command friction: SOCOM/JSOC is effectively calling the shots instead of SOUTHCOM, creating bureaucratic conflict. The recent Southcom commander’s resignation may relate to this.

War-crime concerns (recent civilian killings at sea) are creating hesitation within the ranks: officers don’t want illegal orders pinned on them, and leaks to the press show the military distancing itself from political decisions. The broader strategic picture is grim: the U.S. lacks the capacity to handle Venezuela while also confronting Russia, Iran, and possibly China.

Overall, the analyst stresses the U.S. is overstretched, baiting Venezuela, internally conflicted, and at risk of stumbling into a politically driven, militarily disastrous conflict.