Ukraine Hits One of Russia's Biggest Oil Refineries /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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the war has shifted from the conventional battlefield to strategic economic targets. Ukraine is amplifying pressure on Russia's energy sector. Moscow continues to bombard Ukraine's power and gas infrastructure. And Trump's Ukraine peace plan hangs in the balance.

Joining us on the broadcast, we've got retired Colonel Daniel Davis, a military expert and host of Daniel Davis Deep Dive on YouTube. Col. Davis, thank you very much for joining us here on Vy.

Now, what do you make of these reports that Ukraine, as a matter of strategy, is carrying out long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refining facilities? Do these attacks by Ukraine actually impede Russia's ability to finance its war, or is it just delaying the inevitable?

It’s without question delaying the inevitable. This is coming too late. I have frankly been perplexed throughout this war as to why this wasn’t done right at the beginning. I don’t understand why they waited to go into this level of attacks into Russia, basically this past summer when they really started stepping up. From August through November, it was 70-some odd attacks, and you can see from the videos that they’re having some actual impact, and it is hurting Russia. There's no question about it.

But you have to look at things in context. While there have been, I think you said, 77 attacks from August to November, the number of attacks deep into Ukraine has been profoundly more than that. The number of strikes and hits inside these areas has been catastrophic. Ukraine, according to their energy officials just a few days ago, said they could probably survive no more than two or three more rounds from Russia before their entire energy system could literally collapse—and they've had another one since then. They could be on a knife's edge.

So when you look at the energy war—aside from the frontline, even aside from the air war—Ukraine is coming late to the process. They’re relatively small because Russia is so much bigger, more spread out, and able to recover from these strikes much better than Ukraine can. Pretty soon, it could be Ukraine that loses this war of attrition.

Interesting. Now, Colonel Davis, we've been talking about measures being taken to try and reach some kind of ceasefire. Donald Trump has put forth a peace plan, but do you think the plan is something the Russians would agree to, despite some reservations in the Kiev camp? Can Zelensky actually walk the talk and reach a ceasefire by ceding territory to Russia? Is that feasible?

It is feasible, but only if Zelensky agrees to something close to the maximalist requirements from the Russian side. He’s trying to dance around, giving some concessions here but not others. Russia is showing some willingness to discuss certain areas—for example, in the Donbas, they are willing to contemplate a demilitarized zone with all forces leaving—but even then, it would still be under Russian control with the National Guard in charge. In other areas, especially Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, there is no negotiation at all over territory that Russia annexed in 2022.

We are no closer to an end. Unfortunately, there’s just not enough leverage on the Ukraine and Western side to compel Russia to give in on those areas. That’s the real crux of the negotiation.