Ukraine Russia War End Won't Stop the Hate / Andrei Martyanov & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Andrei Martyanov argues that Ukraine effectively lost the war after Russia’s earlier withdrawal, during which Russia evacuated about 110,000 civilians who wanted to leave with it. Ukraine’s subsequent counteroffensives are described as catastrophic failures, with the Kursk operation cited as another example—attributed partly to corruption and poor fortifications—resulting in roughly 80,000 Ukrainian casualties over a small area. Tactical advances and withdrawals are characterized as minor, platoon-level actions that do not change the overall strategic picture, which the speaker says strongly favors Russia.

Claims of Ukrainian successes, including a reported underwater drone attack damaging a Russian submarine, are dismissed as propaganda. The speaker asserts that no submarine was damaged, only a pier, and that such stories reflect Ukraine’s and NATO’s need to project symbolic victories despite no real military impact.

Strategically, the discussion centers on recent comments by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. While Ryabkov says a negotiated settlement could be near, the speaker argues this is diplomatic language masking a firm Russian position. According to Ryabkov’s statements, Ukraine and its backers must recognize Russia’s military dominance and accept territorial realities: Russia will not compromise on Crimea or the four annexed regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson), which it considers integral parts of the Russian state.

The speaker concludes that negotiations are not truly close unless Ukraine accepts these conditions. Russia views Europe as a long-term existential adversary and will not restore normal relations. Any meaningful talks will be primarily between Russia and the United States, reflecting superpower responsibility to avoid nuclear war, while Ukraine is portrayed as a dependent Western proxy rather than an autonomous negotiating actor.