Russia Pounding Ukraine /Patrick Henningsen & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Patrick Henningsen argues that there is no real progress in negotiations over Ukraine and no serious trilateral diplomatic process underway. Public statements about “talks” are portrayed as empty rhetoric rather than substantive diplomacy.

The core critique is that Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy lacks real statecraft. He is described as relying on personality, surrounded by “yes-men,” and recycling talking points rather than exercising disciplined diplomacy. This, the speaker argues, mirrors failures seen under previous U.S. administrations, including Biden’s, because neither side is willing to acknowledge the U.S. role as the primary driver of the Ukraine project since 2014.

According to the analysis:

The U.S. is seen as the central force behind Ukraine’s post-Maidan trajectory, a fact Western governments avoid admitting because it would undermine the dominant narrative.

Trump has failed to unify the U.S. and Europe around a negotiated settlement, instead contributing to political splits that push Europe closer to Kyiv while leaving the U.S. ambiguously positioned.

Claims of improved U.S.–Russia relations are dismissed as superficial, since talks are being handled by unofficial envoys on both sides, signaling that neither country is serious about a formal peace process.

Russia is described as outmaneuvering the U.S. diplomatically by matching unofficial U.S. intermediaries with its own, waiting for Washington to demonstrate seriousness by aligning Europe and pressuring Kyiv.

On military support:

Despite Trump’s rhetoric, U.S. aid to Ukraine has not meaningfully declined, and funding continues quietly through NATO mechanisms and congressional authorizations.

Europe is financing the war largely through debt, not strength, and Ukraine remains outside both NATO and the EU.

The speaker concludes that:

Nothing has changed on the ground militarily or diplomatically.

NATO rhetoric about Ukrainian victory is detached from battlefield reality.

Even a Ukrainian defeat would likely be spun by Europe as a strategic success.

The war, from this perspective, is built on a series of Western narratives that obscure failures and prolong the conflict.

Overall, the net assessment is one of strategic stagnation, narrative management, and diplomatic dysfunction, with no credible pathway to peace under current leadership.